Every commercial debt has a half-life. The moment an invoice passes its due date, the probability of full recovery begins to decline — not linearly, but exponentially. The data across our global portfolio is consistent: recovery probability correlates inversely with aging, and the most significant drop occurs between 90 and 180 days past due.

The aging curve

Based on our portfolio data across 40+ jurisdictions over the past decade:

0-90 days past due: Recovery probability approximately 73%. The debtor is typically solvent, the relationship is still active, and the commercial pressure to maintain the relationship creates incentive to pay. Amicable resolution is achieved in approximately 70% of cases within this window.

90-180 days past due: Recovery probability drops to approximately 57%. The debtor has had time to restructure, transfer assets, or accumulate additional creditor claims. The relationship has typically deteriorated, reducing the commercial incentive to prioritise payment. Legal proceedings become more likely.

180-360 days past due: Recovery probability drops to approximately 42%. The debtor may be in financial distress. Other creditors may have filed claims or obtained enforcement titles. The creditor's position in the payment hierarchy has declined.

Beyond 360 days: Recovery probability below 30%. The debtor may be insolvent or in formal restructuring. The creditor faces competing claims and may recover only a fraction of the original amount through insolvency proceedings.

These figures represent portfolio averages. Individual outcomes vary based on jurisdiction, claim size, evidence quality, and debtor profile. But the trend is consistent: every month of delay reduces recovery probability by approximately 2-4 percentage points.

Why creditors wait

If the data is clear, why do creditors wait? Three reasons recur consistently:

Relationship preservation. The creditor's sales team resists escalation because they want to maintain the commercial relationship. This instinct is commercially rational for slow payers who eventually pay. It is commercially destructive for non-payers who use the relationship to delay indefinitely.

Internal process delays. Many organisations require internal approval before engaging a collection agency or filing legal proceedings. The approval process typically involves credit management, legal, sales, and finance — and the coordination between these departments adds weeks or months to the timeline.

The sunk cost fallacy. Creditors who have already waited six months feel that they've "invested" in patience and are reluctant to abandon that investment by escalating. The fallacy is that patience is not an investment — it's a cost. Every month of patience reduces recovery probability without producing any return.

The 90-day protocol

Creditors who systematically achieve the highest recovery rates follow a structured escalation timeline:

Day 1-30 past due: Internal follow-up. The creditor's credit management team contacts the debtor directly, confirms the invoice details, and establishes a payment timeline.

Day 30-60 past due: Formal demand. A written demand letter, ideally on legal letterhead, notifies the debtor that the claim will be escalated if payment is not received within a specified period.

Day 60-90 past due: Professional engagement. The creditor engages a professional recovery partner with jurisdiction-specific capability. The amicable phase begins immediately.

Day 90-120 past due: Legal assessment. If amicable resolution has not been achieved, the recovery partner provides a jurisdiction-specific assessment of legal options, costs, and expected outcomes. The creditor decides whether to proceed to the legal phase.

This protocol is not aggressive. It's systematic. The debtor receives clear signals at each stage that the creditor is escalating methodically — and that continued non-payment will result in enforcement, not additional patience.

The speed advantage

The creditor who engages at 60 days has a structural advantage over the creditor who engages at 180 days. The debtor is more likely to be solvent. The assets are more likely to be intact. The relationship dynamic still creates commercial pressure. And the enforcement instruments — payment orders, pre-judgment attachments, fast-track proceedings — are more effective when the debtor has not yet had time to prepare defensive positions.

If you have receivables aging beyond 60 days and you haven't engaged a professional recovery partner, the arithmetic is working against you. Brief our team now — the recovery probability is higher today than it will be tomorrow.